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Independiente vs Platense Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Clausura · Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 00:30

Independiente

PPG 2.00 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Platense

PPG 0.89 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 56.1% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.4%0-15.9%0-22.1%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-015.0%1-110.5%1-23.6%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-013.3%2-19.3%2-23.2%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.9%3-15.5%3-21.9%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-05.2%4+-13.6%4+-21.3%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.1% 55.6% 1.80 +1.0%

Draw 23.0% 30.8% 3.25 -15.2%

Away win 20.9% 20.8% 4.80 +0.2%

Over 2.5 50.3% 38.2% 2.62 +31.8%

Over 3.5 29.1% 19.0% 5.25 +31.7%

BTTS 49.6% 43.5% 2.30 +14.1%

Home O1.5 49.2% 44.4% 2.25 +10.7%

Away O1.5 17.4% 20.0% 5.00 -7.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 88 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -2.5%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob49.6%

H 56% / xG 1.8-0.7 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.0%

#2 2–0 13.3%

#3 1–1 10.5%

#4 0–0 8.4%

#5 2–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Independiente1.8

Platense0.7

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.3% · O3.5 PROB 29.1%

Form & verdict PPG

INDEPENDIENTE · PPG 2.00

PLATENSE · PPG 0.89

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.08 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Independiente (H) 56.1%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV +1.0%

Draw 23.0%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -15.2%

Platense (A) 20.9%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +0.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Independiente face Platense in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Independiente a 56% chance, the draw 23% and Platense 21%, so Independiente are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Independiente and 0.7 for Platense (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Independiente are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.89 for Platense. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +43.0%. This match finished 0-1.

Independiente vs Platense Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Match Preview & Prediction

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