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Independ. Rivadavia vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Clausura · Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 00:45

Independ. Rivadavia

PPG 2.00 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto

PPG 0.11 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 74.3% vs bookmaker-implied 68.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+9.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-11.9%0-20.3%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-013.2%1-14.9%1-20.9%1-30.1%1-4+0.0%2 2-017.3%2-16.4%2-21.2%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-015.1%3-15.6%3-21.0%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-018.6%4+-16.9%4+-21.3%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 74.3% 68.0% 1.47 +9.2%

Draw 17.1% 26.3% 3.80 -21.0%

Away win 8.6% 12.3% 8.10 -18.2%

Over 2.5 60.4% 44.4% 2.25 +35.9%

Over 3.5 37.0% 23.8% 4.20 +55.4%

BTTS 45.5% 42.0% 2.38 +8.3%

Home O1.5 63.0% 55.6% 1.80 +13.4%

Away O1.5 11.1% 15.4% 6.50 -16.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 88 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -2.5%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 65%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob45.5%

H 74% / xG 2.6-0.4 / O2.5 60% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 17.3%

#2 3–0 15.1%

#3 1–0 13.2%

#4 4–0 9.9%

#5 2–1✓ 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Independ. Rivadavia2.6

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto0.4

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.4% · O3.5 PROB 37.0%

Form & verdict PPG

INDEPEND. RIVADAVIA · PPG 2.00

ESTUDIANTES DE RIO CUARTO · PPG 0.11

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.25 for Home, form 2.00 vs 0.11 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Independ. Rivadavia (H) 74.3%

ODDS 1.47 · IMPLIED 68.0% EV +9.2%

Draw 17.1%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -21.0%

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto (A) 8.6%

ODDS 8.10 · IMPLIED 12.3% EV -18.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Independ. Rivadavia face Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Independ. Rivadavia a 74% chance, the draw 17% and Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 9%, so Independ. Rivadavia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Independ. Rivadavia and 0.4 for Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Independ. Rivadavia are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.11 for Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +55.4%. This match finished 2-1.

Independ. Rivadavia vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Match Preview & Prediction

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