Today / Ecuador - Liga Pro / LDU de Quito vs Independiente del Valle

LDU de Quito vs Independiente del Valle Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Matchday 24 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 00:00

LDU de Quito

PPG 1.64 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Independiente del Valle

PPG 2.73 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.0%0-111.6%0-28.4%0-34.1%0-4+2.0%1 1-08.6%1-112.5%1-29.0%1-34.4%1-4+2.2%2 2-04.6%2-16.7%2-24.9%2-32.4%2-4+1.2%3 3-01.7%3-12.4%3-21.7%3-30.8%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.8%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.8% 33.8% 2.96 -7.1%

Draw 25.2% 30.3% 3.30 -10.1%

Away win 45.0% 43.1% 2.32 +4.4%

Over 2.5 52.4% 50.0% 2.00 +4.8%

Over 3.5 29.7% 28.2% 3.55 +3.3%

BTTS 53.1% 57.8% 1.73 -8.1%

Home O1.5 32.1% 37.0% 2.70 -13.3%

Away O1.5 43.7% 43.5% 2.30 +0.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 95 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 9.4%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob53.1%

A 45% / xG 1.1-1.4 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 0–0 8.0%

#3 0–1 11.6%

#4 1–2 9.0%

#5 0–2✓ 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

LDU de Quito1.1

Independiente del Valle1.4

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.4% · O3.5 PROB 29.7%

Form & verdict PPG

LDU DE QUITO · PPG 1.64

INDEPENDIENTE DEL VALLE · PPG 2.73

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.37 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

LDU de Quito (H) 29.8%

ODDS 2.96 · IMPLIED 33.8% EV -7.1%

Draw 25.2%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -10.1%

Independiente del Valle (A) 45.0%

ODDS 2.32 · IMPLIED 43.1% EV +4.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

LDU de Quito face Independiente del Valle in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives LDU de Quito a 30% chance, the draw 25% and Independiente del Valle 45%, so Independiente del Valle are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for LDU de Quito and 1.4 for Independiente del Valle (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, LDU de Quito are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 2.73 for Independiente del Valle. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +4.8%. This match finished 0-2.

LDU de Quito vs Independiente del Valle Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

More Ecuador - Liga Pro Predictions