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Aucas vs Leones del Norte Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Matchday 24 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 21:30

Aucas

PPG 1.73 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

Leones del Norte

PPG 1.09 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.2%0-110.4%0-24.4%0-31.3%0-4+0.3%1 1-015.3%1-113.0%1-25.5%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.6%2-18.1%2-23.5%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.0%3-13.4%3-21.4%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.4%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.3% 55.6% 1.80 -22.1%

Draw 27.6% 29.0% 3.45 -2.9%

Away win 29.2% 22.7% 4.40 +17.1%

Over 2.5 45.9% 45.5% 2.20 +1.0%

Over 3.5 25.8% 23.8% 4.20 +5.0%

BTTS 48.4% 50.0% 2.00 -3.2%

Home O1.5 35.3% 48.8% 2.05 -27.6%

Away O1.5 20.4% 25.0% 4.00 -11.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 95 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 9.4%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.4%

H 43% / xG 1.3-0.9 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–0 12.2%

#3 1–0 15.3%

#4 2–0 9.6%

#5 0–1 10.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aucas1.3

Leones del Norte0.9

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.9% · O3.5 PROB 25.8%

Form & verdict PPG

AUCAS · PPG 1.73

LEONES DEL NORTE · PPG 1.09

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.40, combined xG 2.10 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Aucas (H) 43.3%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -22.1%

Draw 27.6%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -2.9%

Leones del Norte (A) 29.2%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +17.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Aucas face Leones del Norte in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aucas a 43% chance, the draw 28% and Leones del Norte 29%, so Aucas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Aucas and 0.9 for Leones del Norte (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aucas are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 1.09 for Leones del Norte. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +13.4%. This match finished 3-0.

Aucas vs Leones del Norte Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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