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Delfin SC vs Orense SC Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Matchday 24 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 21:00

Delfin SC

PPG 1.55 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Orense SC

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.1%0-111.4%0-24.6%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-016.2%1-113.1%1-25.3%1-31.4%1-4+0.3%2 2-09.3%2-17.5%2-23.1%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.6%3-12.9%3-21.2%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.1%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.8% 39.1% 2.56 +19.8%

Draw 28.9% 32.8% 3.05 -7.1%

Away win 24.4% 35.1% 2.85 -18.3%

Over 2.5 41.6% 40.8% 2.45 +1.9%

Over 3.5 21.8% 21.1% 4.75 +2.1%

BTTS 48.4% 50.0% 2.00 -3.2%

Home O1.5 32.1% 35.1% 2.85 -8.5%

Away O1.5 20.4% 32.3% 3.10 -22.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 95 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 9.4%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.4%

H 47% / xG 1.1-0.8 / U2.5 42% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.1%

#2 1–1✓ 13.1%

#3 1–0 16.2%

#4 0–1 11.4%

#5 2–0 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Delfin SC1.1

Orense SC0.8

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 41.6% · O3.5 PROB 21.8%

Form & verdict PPG

DELFIN SC · PPG 1.55

ORENSE SC · PPG 1.00

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.34, combined xG 1.96 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Delfin SC (H) 46.8%

ODDS 2.56 · IMPLIED 39.1% EV +19.8%

Draw 28.9%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV -7.1%

Orense SC (A) 24.4%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV -18.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Delfin SC face Orense SC in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Delfin SC a 47% chance, the draw 29% and Orense SC 24%, so Delfin SC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Delfin SC and 0.8 for Orense SC (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 42% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Delfin SC are averaging 1.55 points per game versus 1.00 for Orense SC. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +13.2%. This match finished 1-1.

Delfin SC vs Orense SC Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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