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Tecnico Universitario vs Mushuc Runa SC Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Matchday 24 ·Monday, August 10, 2026, 19:00

Tecnico Universitario

PPG 1.45 · HOME

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Mushuc Runa SC

PPG 0.82 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.5% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-17.5%0-24.3%0-31.7%0-4+0.6%1 1-010.3%1-111.9%1-26.9%1-32.6%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.1%2-19.3%2-25.4%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.3%3-14.9%3-22.8%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-12.8%4+-21.6%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.2% 38.2% 2.62 +18.4%

Draw 25.5% 30.8% 3.25 -10.3%

Away win 29.4% 38.2% 2.62 -13.8%

Over 2.5 53.4% 47.6% 2.10 +12.1%

Over 3.5 31.8% 26.3% 3.80 +20.8%

BTTS 54.5% 55.6% 1.80 -1.9%

Home O1.5 46.7% 39.2% 2.55 +19.1%

Away O1.5 34.7% 39.2% 2.55 -11.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 94 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 9.4%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.5%

H 45% / xG 1.6-1.2 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–0 10.3%

#4 0–0 6.5%

#5 2–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tecnico Universitario1.6

Mushuc Runa SC1.2

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 31.8%

Form & verdict PPG

TECNICO UNIVERSITARIO · PPG 1.45

MUSHUC RUNA SC · PPG 0.82

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.42 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Tecnico Universitario (H) 45.2%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV +18.4%

Draw 25.5%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -10.3%

Mushuc Runa SC (A) 29.4%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -13.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tecnico Universitario face Mushuc Runa SC in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Monday, August 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tecnico Universitario a 45% chance, the draw 26% and Mushuc Runa SC 29%, so Tecnico Universitario are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Tecnico Universitario and 1.2 for Mushuc Runa SC (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tecnico Universitario are averaging 1.45 points per game versus 0.82 for Mushuc Runa SC. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +20.8%. This match finished 0-3.

Tecnico Universitario vs Mushuc Runa SC Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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