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Atletico FC vs Santo Domingo Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro Serie B

Matchday 20 ·Thursday, August 6, 2026, 20:30

Atletico FC

PPG 2.33 · HOME

UPCOMING

Santo Domingo

PPG 0.44 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +0.94 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-020.1%0-16.7%0-21.1%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-025.6%1-18.5%1-21.4%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-016.3%2-15.4%2-20.9%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-06.9%3-12.3%3-20.4%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-11.0%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.1% — — —

Draw 27.7% — — —

Away win 15.2% — — —

Over 2.5 34.8% — — —

Over 3.5 18.1% — — —

BTTS 33.3% — — —

Home O1.5 36.7% — — —

Away O1.5 11.1% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 12 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 42%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 58%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.3 BTTS prob33.3%

H 57% / xG 1.3-0.3 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 33%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 25.6%

#2 0–0 20.1%

#3 2–0 16.3%

#4 1–1 8.5%

#5 3–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atletico FC1.3

Santo Domingo0.3

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.8% · O3.5 PROB 18.1%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLETICO FC · PPG 2.33

SANTO DOMINGO · PPG 0.44

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.94 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Atletico FC (H) 57.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 27.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Santo Domingo (A) 15.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Atletico FC face Santo Domingo in Ecuador - Liga Pro Serie B on Thursday, August 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atletico FC a 57% chance, the draw 28% and Santo Domingo 15%, so Atletico FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Atletico FC and 0.3 for Santo Domingo (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 33% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atletico FC are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 0.44 for Santo Domingo.

Atletico FC vs Santo Domingo Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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