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Libertad vs Universidad Catolica Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Matchday 24 ·Monday, August 10, 2026, 21:30

Libertad

PPG 1.82 · HOME

UPCOMING

Universidad Catolica

PPG 1.18 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.6%0-113.1%0-27.4%0-32.8%0-4+1.0%1 1-011.9%1-113.4%1-27.6%1-32.8%1-4+1.0%2 2-06.1%2-16.9%2-23.9%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-02.1%3-12.4%3-21.3%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.8%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.9% 25.0% 4.00 +43.6%

Draw 29.1% 29.4% 3.40 -0.6%

Away win 35.0% 52.6% 1.90 -33.5%

Over 2.5 42.7% 50.0% 2.00 -14.6%

Over 3.5 21.1% 28.6% 3.50 -15.7%

BTTS 48.5% 56.5% 1.77 -14.2%

Home O1.5 30.2% 30.3% 3.30 -0.3%

Away O1.5 34.7% 50.0% 2.00 -30.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 94 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 9.4%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 36%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob48.5%

D 29% / xG 1.0-1.1 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 0–0 11.6%

#3 0–1 13.1%

#4 1–0 11.9%

#5 1–2 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Libertad1.0

Universidad Catolica1.1

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 21.1%

Form & verdict PPG

LIBERTAD · PPG 1.82

UNIVERSIDAD CATOLICA · PPG 1.18

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.10, combined xG 2.15 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Libertad (H) 35.9%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +43.6%

Draw 29.1%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -0.6%

Universidad Catolica (A) 35.0%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -33.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Libertad face Universidad Catolica in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Monday, August 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Libertad a 36% chance, the draw 29% and Universidad Catolica 35%, so Libertad are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Libertad and 1.1 for Universidad Catolica (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Libertad are averaging 1.82 points per game versus 1.18 for Universidad Catolica. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +10.6%.

Libertad vs Universidad Catolica Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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