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Barcelona SC vs Macara Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Matchday 24 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 00:00

Barcelona SC

PPG 2.18 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

Macara

PPG 1.36 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.3%0-110.0%0-23.8%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-016.8%1-112.7%1-24.8%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.7%2-18.0%2-23.0%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.5%3-13.4%3-21.3%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-11.4%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.3% 61.7% 1.62 -25.0%

Draw 27.6% 27.0% 3.70 +1.3%

Away win 26.1% 18.2% 5.50 +26.1%

Over 2.5 44.0% 50.0% 2.00 -12.0%

Over 3.5 22.0% 28.6% 3.50 -13.8%

BTTS 48.4% 51.8% 1.93 -6.6%

Home O1.5 36.3% 55.6% 1.80 -34.7%

Away O1.5 17.4% 23.1% 4.33 -14.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 95 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 9.4%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.4%

H 46% / xG 1.3-0.8 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 13.3%

#2 1–0 16.8%

#3 1–1 12.7%

#4 2–0 10.7%

#5 0–1 10.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Barcelona SC1.3

Macara0.8

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.0% · O3.5 PROB 22.0%

Form & verdict PPG

BARCELONA SC · PPG 2.18

MACARA · PPG 1.36

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.51 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Barcelona SC (H) 46.3%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -25.0%

Draw 27.6%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV +1.3%

Macara (A) 26.1%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +26.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Barcelona SC face Macara in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Barcelona SC a 46% chance, the draw 28% and Macara 26%, so Barcelona SC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Barcelona SC and 0.8 for Macara (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Barcelona SC are averaging 2.18 points per game versus 1.36 for Macara. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +10.2%. This match finished 1-2.

Barcelona SC vs Macara Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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