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Cosenza vs Trapani Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone C

Girone C - 37 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 18:30

Cosenza

PPG 2.33 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Trapani

PPG 0.94 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 77.5% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7% — a clear edge.

+16.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.8%0-12.3%0-21.0%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-07.7%1-16.4%1-22.6%1-30.7%1-4+0.2%2 2-010.6%2-18.8%2-23.6%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.7%3-18.0%3-23.3%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-012.9%4+-110.7%4+-24.4%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 77.5% 66.7% 1.50 +16.3%

Draw 13.9% 27.0% 3.70 -48.6%

Away win 8.6% 16.0% 6.25 -46.3%

Over 2.5 69.2% 54.1% 1.85 +28.0%

Over 3.5 47.8% 32.3% 3.10 +48.2%

BTTS 52.6% 54.1% 1.85 -2.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 24%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 3.3%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 68%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.6%

H 78% / xG 2.7-0.8 / O2.5 69% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.6%

#2 3–0 9.7%

#3 2–1 8.8%

#4 3–1 8.0%

#5 1–0✓ 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cosenza2.7

Trapani0.8

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 69.2% · O3.5 PROB 47.8%

Form & verdict PPG

COSENZA · PPG 2.33

TRAPANI · PPG 0.94

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.33), Away POOR (0.94) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Cosenza (H) 77.5%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV +16.3%

Draw 13.9%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -48.6%

Trapani (A) 8.6%

ODDS 6.25 · IMPLIED 16.0% EV -46.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cosenza face Trapani in Italy - Serie C - Girone C on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cosenza a 78% chance, the draw 14% and Trapani 9%, so Cosenza are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Cosenza and 0.8 for Trapani (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 69% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cosenza are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 0.94 for Trapani. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +48.2%. This match finished 1-0.

Cosenza vs Trapani Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone C

Match Preview & Prediction

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