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Catania vs Potenza Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone C

Girone C - 37 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 18:30

Catania

PPG 2.39 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Potenza

PPG 0.72 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 83.7% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-12.0%0-20.5%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-010.9%1-15.5%1-21.4%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-014.8%2-17.4%2-21.9%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-013.4%3-16.7%3-21.7%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-017.5%4+-18.7%4+-22.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 83.7% 76.9% 1.30 +8.8%

Draw 11.7% 23.8% 4.20 -50.9%

Away win 4.6% 9.8% 10.25 -52.8%

Over 2.5 62.2% 57.1% 1.75 +8.8%

Over 3.5 40.0% 35.7% 2.80 +12.0%

BTTS 36.8% 48.8% 2.05 -24.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 24%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 3.3%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 71%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob36.8%

H 84% / xG 2.7-0.5 / O2.5 62% / NoBTTS 37%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 14.8%

#2 3–0 13.4%

#3 1–0 10.9%

#4 4–0 9.1%

#5 2–1 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Catania2.7

Potenza0.5

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.2% · O3.5 PROB 40.0%

Form & verdict PPG

CATANIA · PPG 2.39

POTENZA · PPG 0.72

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.39), Away POOR (0.72) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Catania (H) 83.7%

ODDS 1.30 · IMPLIED 76.9% EV +8.8%

Draw 11.7%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -50.9%

Potenza (A) 4.6%

ODDS 10.25 · IMPLIED 9.8% EV -52.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Catania face Potenza in Italy - Serie C - Girone C on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Catania a 84% chance, the draw 12% and Potenza 5%, so Catania are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Catania and 0.5 for Potenza (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 37% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Catania are averaging 2.39 points per game versus 0.72 for Potenza. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +12.0%. This match finished 1-1.

Catania vs Potenza Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone C

Match Preview & Prediction

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