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Racing Montevideo vs Boston River Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Torneo Intermedio - 7 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 15:00

Racing Montevideo

PPG 1.82 · HOME

UPCOMING

Boston River

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 56.2% vs bookmaker-implied 56.2% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.5%0-16.4%0-22.0%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-017.2%1-110.6%1-23.2%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.1%2-18.7%2-22.7%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-07.7%3-14.8%3-21.5%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.6%4+-12.8%4+-20.9%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.2% 56.2% 1.78 +0.0%

Draw 24.9% 30.3% 3.30 -10.7%

Away win 18.9% 22.7% 4.40 -10.1%

Over 2.5 45.7% 45.5% 2.20 +0.5%

Over 3.5 26.1% 23.8% 4.20 +5.8%

BTTS 46.3% 50.0% 2.00 -7.4%

Home O1.5 49.4% 47.6% 2.10 +3.7%

Away O1.5 17.4% 23.8% 4.20 -16.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 33 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -27.4%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 38%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob46.3%

H 56% / xG 1.6-0.6 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.2%

#2 2–0 14.1%

#3 1–1 10.6%

#4 0–0 10.5%

#5 2–1 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Racing Montevideo1.6

Boston River0.6

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.7% · O3.5 PROB 26.1%

Form & verdict PPG

RACING MONTEVIDEO · PPG 1.82

BOSTON RIVER · PPG 0.80

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.03 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Racing Montevideo (H) 56.2%

ODDS 1.78 · IMPLIED 56.2% EV +0.0%

Draw 24.9%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -10.7%

Boston River (A) 18.9%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -10.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Racing Montevideo face Boston River in Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Racing Montevideo a 56% chance, the draw 25% and Boston River 19%, so Racing Montevideo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Racing Montevideo and 0.6 for Boston River (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Racing Montevideo are averaging 1.82 points per game versus 0.80 for Boston River. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +18.9%.

Racing Montevideo vs Boston River Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

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