Casarano vs Crotone Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone C

Italy - Serie C - Girone C Girone C - 37 Stadio Giuseppe Capozza· Casarano Sunday, April 19, 2026 18:30

Casarano PPG 1.94

1-2 HIT CS3

Crotone PPG 1.33

Over3.5· +21.6% ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Casarano face Crotone in Italy - Serie C - Girone C on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Casarano a 41% chance, the draw 24% and Crotone 35%, so Casarano are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Casarano and 1.5 for Crotone (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Casarano are averaging 1.94 points per game versus 1.33 for Crotone. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +21.6%. This match finished 1-2.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 41.2%

Odds: 2.88 EV: +18.7%

Draw 23.8%

Odds: 3.20 EV: -23.8%

Away 35.0%

Odds: 2.25 EV: -21.3%

Model lean: BTTS

Result: Away ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 59.8% Odds: 1.90 +13.6%

Over 3.5 37.4% Odds: 3.25 +21.6%

BTTS 61.9% Odds: 1.67 +3.4%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 2-1 ✘

3rd 1-2 ✔

4th 1-0 ✘

5th 0-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Casarano

1.62

Crotone

1.48

Model SuggestionBTTS +3.4% ROI TRACKS: BTTS
Tracked ROI market: BTTS. 
Raw EV leader: Over3.5(+21.6%)

Verdict & Form

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.94) > Away AVERAGE (1.33)