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Casarano vs Crotone Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone C

Girone C - 37 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 18:30

Casarano

PPG 1.94 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Crotone

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.9% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-16.7%0-24.9%0-32.4%0-4+1.2%1 1-07.3%1-110.8%1-28.0%1-33.9%1-4+2.0%2 2-05.9%2-18.8%2-26.5%2-33.2%2-4+1.6%3 3-03.2%3-14.7%3-23.5%3-31.7%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.8%4+-22.0%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.2% 34.7% 2.88 +18.7%

Draw 23.8% 31.3% 3.20 -23.8%

Away win 35.0% 44.4% 2.25 -21.3%

Over 2.5 59.8% 52.6% 1.90 +13.6%

Over 3.5 37.4% 30.8% 3.25 +21.6%

BTTS 61.9% 59.9% 1.67 +3.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 24%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 3.3%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob61.9%

H 41% / xG 1.6-1.5 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 1–2✓ 8.0%

#4 1–0 7.3%

#5 0–1 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Casarano1.6

Crotone1.5

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.8% · O3.5 PROB 37.4%

Form & verdict PPG

CASARANO · PPG 1.94

CROTONE · PPG 1.33

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.94) > Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

Casarano (H) 41.2%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV +18.7%

Draw 23.8%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -23.8%

Crotone (A) 35.0%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -21.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Casarano face Crotone in Italy - Serie C - Girone C on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Casarano a 41% chance, the draw 24% and Crotone 35%, so Casarano are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Casarano and 1.5 for Crotone (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Casarano are averaging 1.94 points per game versus 1.33 for Crotone. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +21.6%. This match finished 1-2.

Casarano vs Crotone Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone C

Match Preview & Prediction

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