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Slavia Sofia vs Lokomotiv Sofia Prediction— Bulgaria - First League

Regular Season - 3 ·Friday, July 31, 2026, 16:00

Slavia Sofia

PPG 1.39 · HOME

UPCOMING

Lokomotiv Sofia

PPG 1.18 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.7%0-112.7%0-25.1%0-31.4%0-4+0.3%1 1-016.4%1-113.2%1-25.3%1-31.4%1-4+0.3%2 2-08.5%2-16.9%2-22.8%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.0%3-12.4%3-21.0%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-10.8%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.9% 35.1% 2.85 +16.6%

Draw 32.7% 30.8% 3.25 +6.3%

Away win 26.5% 44.4% 2.25 -24.2%

Over 2.5 33.6% 51.8% 1.93 -35.1%

Over 3.5 17.1% 30.3% 3.30 -26.1%

BTTS 45.4% 58.8% 1.70 -22.8%

Home O1.5 32.6% 38.5% 2.60 -15.2%

Away O1.5 20.3% 45.5% 2.20 -33.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 33%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 17%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 38%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob45.4%

H 41% / xG 1.0-0.8 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 15.7%

#2 1–1 13.2%

#3 1–0 16.4%

#4 0–1 12.7%

#5 2–0 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Slavia Sofia1.0

Lokomotiv Sofia0.8

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 33.6% · O3.5 PROB 17.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SLAVIA SOFIA · PPG 1.39

LOKOMOTIV SOFIA · PPG 1.18

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.23, combined xG 1.85 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Slavia Sofia (H) 40.9%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV +16.6%

Draw 32.7%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +6.3%

Lokomotiv Sofia (A) 26.5%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -24.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Slavia Sofia face Lokomotiv Sofia in Bulgaria - First League on Friday, July 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Slavia Sofia a 41% chance, the draw 33% and Lokomotiv Sofia 27%, so Slavia Sofia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Slavia Sofia and 0.8 for Lokomotiv Sofia (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Slavia Sofia are averaging 1.39 points per game versus 1.18 for Lokomotiv Sofia.

Slavia Sofia vs Lokomotiv Sofia Prediction— Bulgaria - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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