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Quilmes vs Almagro Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Matchday 24 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 20:00

Quilmes

PPG 1.91 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Almagro

PPG 0.82 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 56.3% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.5%0-16.6%0-21.8%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-019.4%1-110.3%1-22.7%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-015.0%2-17.9%2-22.1%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-07.7%3-14.1%3-21.1%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-04.2%4+-12.2%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.3% 65.4% 1.53 -13.9%

Draw 24.6% 31.3% 3.20 -12.8%

Away win 19.0% 13.5% 7.40 +24.4%

Over 2.5 44.0% 40.0% 2.50 +10.0%

Over 3.5 22.0% 20.0% 5.00 +6.0%

BTTS 45.5% 40.8% 2.45 +11.5%

Home O1.5 45.4% 51.8% 1.93 -12.4%

Away O1.5 17.4% 12.5% 8.00 +23.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 233 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 64%

ROI -1.1%

Bet Hit 49%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob45.5%

H 56% / xG 1.5-0.5 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 19.4%

#2 2–0 15.0%

#3 0–0 12.5%

#4 1–1✓ 10.3%

#5 2–1 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Quilmes1.5

Almagro0.5

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.0% · O3.5 PROB 22.0%

Form & verdict PPG

QUILMES · PPG 1.91

ALMAGRO · PPG 0.82

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.02 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Quilmes (H) 56.3%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -13.9%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -12.8%

Almagro (A) 19.0%

ODDS 7.40 · IMPLIED 13.5% EV +24.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Quilmes face Almagro in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Quilmes a 56% chance, the draw 25% and Almagro 19%, so Quilmes are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Quilmes and 0.5 for Almagro (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Quilmes are averaging 1.91 points per game versus 0.82 for Almagro. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +34.6%. This match finished 1-1.

Quilmes vs Almagro Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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