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Gimnasia Jujuy vs Almagro Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Argentina - Primera Nacional logo Argentina flag Argentina - Primera Nacional Regular Season - 10 Estadio 23 de Agosto· Jujuy Sunday, April 19, 2026 18:30
Gimnasia Jujuy logo Gimnasia Jujuy PPG 3.00
6-1 MISS
Almagro logo Almagro PPG 0.50
Home· +30.9% 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned
98% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Gimnasia Jujuy face Almagro in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gimnasia Jujuy a 77% chance, the draw 18% and Almagro 5%, so Gimnasia Jujuy are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Gimnasia Jujuy and 0.3 for Almagro (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 24% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gimnasia Jujuy are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 0.50 for Almagro. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +30.9%. This match finished 6-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 77.0%
Odds: 1.70 EV: +30.9%
Draw 17.7%
Odds: 3.00 EV: -46.9%
Away 5.2%
Odds: 5.60 EV: -70.9%
Model lean: Home
Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 40.1% Odds: 2.85 +14.3%
Over 3.5 19.8% Odds: —
BTTS 23.9% Odds: 2.50 -40.3%
O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS NO → YES ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-0
2nd 2-0
3rd 3-0
4th 0-0
5th 1-1

Expected Goals (xG)

Gimnasia Jujuy
1.96
Almagro
0.33

Model Suggestion

Home +30.9% ROI TRACKS: Home
Tracked ROI market: Home.

Verdict & Form

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned
98%
STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (3.00), Away POOR (0.50) - Strong consensus

PredictVantage is for entertainment and informational purposes only. We do not provide financial or betting advice. All predictions are model-generated and do not guarantee any outcome. Gambling involves risk — never bet more than you can afford to lose. Please gamble responsibly. 18+ only. BeGambleAware.org