Today / Argentina - Primera Nacional / Gimnasia Jujuy vs Almagro

Gimnasia Jujuy vs Almagro Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 10 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 18:30

Gimnasia Jujuy

PPG 3.00 · HOME

6 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Almagro

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 77.0% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a clear edge.

+30.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.1%0-13.3%0-20.5%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-019.9%1-16.5%1-21.1%1-30.1%1-4+0.0%2 2-019.5%2-16.4%2-21.0%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-012.8%3-14.2%3-20.7%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-09.8%4+-13.2%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 77.0% 58.8% 1.70 +30.9%

Draw 17.7% 33.3% 3.00 -46.9%

Away win 5.2% 17.9% 5.60 -70.9%

Over 2.5 40.1% 35.1% 2.85 +14.3%

Over 3.5 19.8% — — —

BTTS 23.9% 40.0% 2.50 -40.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 177 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 70%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 6-1

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.3 BTTS prob23.9%

H 77% / xG 2.0-0.3 / U2.5 40% / NoBTTS 24%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 19.9%

#2 2–0 19.5%

#3 3–0 12.8%

#4 0–0 10.1%

#5 1–1 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gimnasia Jujuy2.0

Almagro0.3

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 40.1% · O3.5 PROB 19.8%

Form & verdict PPG

GIMNASIA JUJUY · PPG 3.00

ALMAGRO · PPG 0.50

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (3.00), Away POOR (0.50) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Gimnasia Jujuy (H) 77.0%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV +30.9%

Draw 17.7%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -46.9%

Almagro (A) 5.2%

ODDS 5.60 · IMPLIED 17.9% EV -70.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gimnasia Jujuy face Almagro in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gimnasia Jujuy a 77% chance, the draw 18% and Almagro 5%, so Gimnasia Jujuy are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Gimnasia Jujuy and 0.3 for Almagro (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 24% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gimnasia Jujuy are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 0.50 for Almagro. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +30.9%. This match finished 6-1.

Gimnasia Jujuy vs Almagro Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

More Argentina - Primera Nacional Predictions