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Skedsmo vs Finnsnes Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 5

Regular Season - 14 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 14:30

Skedsmo

PPG 2.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Finnsnes

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-14.0%0-22.2%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-08.2%1-18.9%1-24.8%1-31.7%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.1%2-19.8%2-25.3%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-06.7%3-17.2%3-23.9%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-06.2%4+-16.7%4+-23.6%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.0% — — —

Draw 22.3% — — —

Away win 21.8% — — —

Over 2.5 62.8% — — —

Over 3.5 39.8% — — —

BTTS 55.6% — — —

Home O1.5 60.1% — — —

Away O1.5 36.5% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 87%

BTTS 78%

Score Hit 22%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.6%

H 56% / xG 2.2-1.1 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.9%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 9.1%

#4 3–1 7.2%

#5 1–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Skedsmo2.2

Finnsnes1.1

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.8% · O3.5 PROB 39.8%

Form & verdict PPG

SKEDSMO · PPG 2.50

FINNSNES · PPG 1.17

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.13 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Skedsmo (H) 56.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Finnsnes (A) 21.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Skedsmo face Finnsnes in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 5 on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Skedsmo a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Finnsnes 22%, so Skedsmo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Skedsmo and 1.1 for Finnsnes (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Skedsmo are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 1.17 for Finnsnes.

Skedsmo vs Finnsnes Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 5

Match Preview & Prediction

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