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hodd vs Moss Prediction— Norway - 1st Division

Regular Season - 16 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 15:00

hodd

PPG 1.86 · HOME

UPCOMING

Moss

PPG 1.12 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.0% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.6%0-13.3%0-22.1%0-30.9%0-4+0.4%1 1-06.2%1-17.8%1-25.0%1-32.1%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.4%2-19.3%2-25.9%2-32.5%2-4+1.1%3 3-05.8%3-17.4%3-24.7%3-32.0%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-06.1%4+-17.8%4+-24.9%4+-32.1%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.0% 47.6% 2.10 +15.5%

Draw 21.9% 26.7% 3.75 -10.7%

Away win 23.2% 35.7% 2.80 -21.0%

Over 2.5 67.0% 70.4% 1.42 -4.9%

Over 3.5 44.8% 48.8% 2.05 -8.2%

BTTS 63.5% 73.5% 1.36 -13.6%

Home O1.5 60.1% 59.9% 1.67 +0.4%

Away O1.5 36.7% 51.3% 1.95 -28.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 23%

ROI 23.4%

Bet Hit 78%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 63%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob63.5%

H 55% / xG 2.4-1.3 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.3%

#2 1–1 7.8%

#3 3–1 7.4%

#4 2–0 7.4%

#5 2–2 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

hodd2.4

Moss1.3

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.8%

Form & verdict PPG

HODD · PPG 1.86

MOSS · PPG 1.12

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.11 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

hodd (H) 55.0%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +15.5%

Draw 21.9%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -10.7%

Moss (A) 23.2%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -21.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

hodd face Moss in Norway - 1st Division on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives hodd a 55% chance, the draw 22% and Moss 23%, so hodd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for hodd and 1.3 for Moss (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, hodd are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 1.12 for Moss. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +19.3%.

hodd vs Moss Prediction— Norway - 1st Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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