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Ranheim vs Haugesund Prediction— Norway - 1st Division

Matchday 16 ·Monday, August 3, 2026, 17:00

Ranheim

PPG 2.12 · HOME

UPCOMING

Haugesund

PPG 1.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 80.6% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.3%0-10.8%0-21.1%0-31.0%0-4+1.3%1 1-01.0%1-12.6%1-23.5%1-33.1%1-4+4.1%2 2-01.5%2-14.0%2-25.4%2-34.8%2-4+6.3%3 3-01.5%3-14.1%3-25.5%3-34.9%3-4+6.4%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-16.7%4+-29.0%4+-38.1%4+-4+10.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.8% 35.7% 2.80 +36.6%

Draw 17.0% 25.0% 4.00 -19.2%

Away win 34.3% 50.0% 2.00 -31.4%

Over 2.5 80.6% 80.0% 1.25 +0.8%

Over 3.5 63.4% 59.9% 1.67 +5.9%

BTTS 70.9% 80.0% 1.25 -11.4%

Home O1.5 77.1% 58.8% 1.70 +31.1%

Away O1.5 67.8% 69.0% 1.45 -1.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 22%

ROI 23.4%

Bet Hit 78%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 56%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.1 xG (away)2.7 BTTS prob70.9%

H 49% / xG 3.1-2.7 / O2.5 81% / BTTS 71%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–2 5.5%

#2 2–2 5.4%

#3 3–3 4.9%

#4 2–3 4.8%

#5 4–2 4.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ranheim3.1

Haugesund2.7

COMBINED 5.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 80.6% · O3.5 PROB 63.4%

Form & verdict PPG

RANHEIM · PPG 2.12

HAUGESUND · PPG 1.88

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.37 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Ranheim (H) 48.8%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV +36.6%

Draw 17.0%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -19.2%

Haugesund (A) 34.3%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -31.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ranheim face Haugesund in Norway - 1st Division on Monday, August 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ranheim a 49% chance, the draw 17% and Haugesund 34%, so Ranheim are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.1 for Ranheim and 2.7 for Haugesund (5.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-2. There is a 81% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 71% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ranheim are averaging 2.12 points per game versus 1.88 for Haugesund. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +34.7%.

Ranheim vs Haugesund Prediction— Norway - 1st Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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