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FA Šiauliai II vs BFA Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Regular Season - 18 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 14:00

FA Šiauliai II

PPG 0.75 · HOME

UPCOMING

BFA

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.6% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-17.3%0-26.9%0-34.3%0-4+3.1%1 1-05.3%1-110.0%1-29.4%1-35.9%1-4+4.3%2 2-03.6%2-16.8%2-26.4%2-34.0%2-4+2.9%3 3-01.6%3-13.1%3-22.9%3-31.8%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.4%4+-21.3%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.2% 20.0% 5.00 +56.0%

Draw 23.4% 23.1% 4.33 +0.8%

Away win 45.4% 69.0% 1.45 -34.2%

Over 2.5 63.6% 65.4% 1.53 -2.7%

Over 3.5 40.1% 42.9% 2.33 -6.6%

BTTS 62.1% 64.5% 1.55 -3.7%

Home O1.5 38.3% 35.7% 2.80 +7.2%

Away O1.5 50.0% 66.7% 1.50 -25.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 43 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 65%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -43.7%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 46%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob62.1%

A 45% / xG 1.4-1.9 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.0%

#2 1–2 9.4%

#3 0–2 6.9%

#4 2–1 6.8%

#5 2–2 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FA Šiauliai II1.4

BFA1.9

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.6% · O3.5 PROB 40.1%

Form & verdict PPG

FA ŠIAULIAI II · PPG 0.75

BFA · PPG 1.50

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.52 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

FA Šiauliai II (H) 31.2%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +56.0%

Draw 23.4%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +0.8%

BFA (A) 45.4%

ODDS 1.45 · IMPLIED 69.0% EV -34.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

FA Šiauliai II face BFA in Lithuania - 1 Lyga on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FA Šiauliai II a 31% chance, the draw 23% and BFA 45%, so BFA are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for FA Šiauliai II and 1.9 for BFA (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FA Šiauliai II are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 1.50 for BFA. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +7.2%.

FA Šiauliai II vs BFA Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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