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Jonava vs Ekranas Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Matchday 19 ·Friday, August 7, 2026, 16:00

Jonava

PPG 1.62 · HOME

UPCOMING

Ekranas

PPG 0.11 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 63.8% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a clear edge.

+24.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.8%0-14.1%0-21.4%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-012.5%1-18.8%1-23.1%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.3%2-19.4%2-23.3%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.5%3-16.7%3-22.4%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-08.4%4+-15.9%4+-22.1%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.8% 51.3% 1.95 +24.4%

Draw 21.3% 30.3% 3.30 -17.8%

Away win 15.0% 30.3% 3.30 -30.3%

Over 2.5 53.5% 57.5% 1.74 -6.9%

Over 3.5 32.3% 35.7% 2.80 -9.6%

BTTS 48.4% 60.6% 1.65 -20.1%

Home O1.5 61.4% — — —

Away O1.5 17.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -43.7%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 45%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.4%

H 64% / xG 2.1-0.7 / O2.5 54% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.3%

#2 1–0 12.5%

#3 1–1 8.8%

#4 3–0 9.5%

#5 2–1 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jonava2.1

Ekranas0.7

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.3%

Form & verdict PPG

JONAVA · PPG 1.62

EKRANAS · PPG 0.11

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.44 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Jonava (H) 63.8%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV +24.4%

Draw 21.3%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -17.8%

Ekranas (A) 15.0%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -30.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Jonava face Ekranas in Lithuania - 1 Lyga on Friday, August 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jonava a 64% chance, the draw 21% and Ekranas 15%, so Jonava are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Jonava and 0.7 for Ekranas (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jonava are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 0.11 for Ekranas.

Jonava vs Ekranas Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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