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Dainava vs Tauras Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Regular Season - 18 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 14:00

Dainava

PPG 2.62 · HOME

UPCOMING

Tauras

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.2% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-15.5%0-22.9%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-010.1%1-110.5%1-25.4%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.6%2-19.9%2-25.2%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.0%3-16.3%3-23.3%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-04.4%4+-14.6%4+-22.4%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.5% 47.6% 2.10 +14.4%

Draw 23.0% 27.8% 3.60 -10.3%

Away win 22.5% 37.0% 2.70 -23.5%

Over 2.5 61.2% 58.8% 1.70 +4.0%

Over 3.5 37.1% 39.2% 2.55 -5.4%

BTTS 55.4% 65.4% 1.53 -15.2%

Home O1.5 53.6% 48.8% 2.05 +9.9%

Away O1.5 35.3% 50.0% 2.00 -29.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 43 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 65%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -43.7%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.4%

H 55% / xG 1.9-1.0 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.6%

#4 1–0 10.1%

#5 0–0 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dainava1.9

Tauras1.0

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.2% · O3.5 PROB 37.1%

Form & verdict PPG

DAINAVA · PPG 2.62

TAURAS · PPG 1.25

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.86 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Dainava (H) 54.5%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +14.4%

Draw 23.0%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -10.3%

Tauras (A) 22.5%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -23.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dainava face Tauras in Lithuania - 1 Lyga on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dainava a 55% chance, the draw 23% and Tauras 23%, so Dainava are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Dainava and 1.0 for Tauras (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dainava are averaging 2.62 points per game versus 1.25 for Tauras. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +9.9%.

Dainava vs Tauras Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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