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Hegelmann II vs Garliava Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Matchday 19 ·Friday, August 7, 2026, 16:00

Hegelmann II

PPG 0.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

Garliava

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.9%0-112.9%0-210.5%0-35.7%0-4+3.3%1 1-07.2%1-111.7%1-29.5%1-35.2%1-4+3.0%2 2-03.3%2-15.3%2-24.3%2-32.3%2-4+1.4%3 3-01.0%3-11.6%3-21.3%3-30.7%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.4%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 24.9% 25.3% 3.95 -1.0%

Draw 25.0% 29.9% 3.35 -9.8%

Away win 50.1% 56.5% 1.77 -11.3%

Over 2.5 50.3% 57.1% 1.75 -12.0%

Over 3.5 29.2% 35.1% 2.85 -10.1%

BTTS 53.1% 58.8% 1.70 -9.7%

Home O1.5 32.1% — — —

Away O1.5 48.2% 57.5% 1.74 -16.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -43.7%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 28%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob53.1%

A 50% / xG 0.9-1.6 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 0–1 12.9%

#3 0–2 10.5%

#4 0–0 7.9%

#5 1–2 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hegelmann II0.9

Garliava1.6

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.3% · O3.5 PROB 29.2%

Form & verdict PPG

HEGELMANN II · PPG 0.67

GARLIAVA · PPG 0.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -0.71 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Hegelmann II (H) 24.9%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -1.0%

Draw 25.0%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -9.8%

Garliava (A) 50.1%

ODDS 1.77 · IMPLIED 56.5% EV -11.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hegelmann II face Garliava in Lithuania - 1 Lyga on Friday, August 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hegelmann II a 25% chance, the draw 25% and Garliava 50%, so Garliava are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Hegelmann II and 1.6 for Garliava (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hegelmann II are averaging 0.67 points per game versus 0.88 for Garliava.

Hegelmann II vs Garliava Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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