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Zorya Luhansk vs Kolos Kovalivka Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Regular Season - 1 ·Friday, July 31, 2026, 15:00

Zorya Luhansk

PPG 1.56 · HOME

UPCOMING

Kolos Kovalivka

PPG 1.61 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.6%0-111.4%0-26.1%0-32.2%0-4+0.7%1 1-012.4%1-113.3%1-27.1%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.3%2-17.8%2-24.2%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-02.8%3-13.0%3-21.6%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.2%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.9% 40.0% 2.50 +2.3%

Draw 29.2% 33.3% 3.00 -7.4%

Away win 29.9% 36.4% 2.75 -10.7%

Over 2.5 45.7% 45.5% 2.20 +0.5%

Over 3.5 28.6% 25.0% 4.00 +8.6%

BTTS 52.6% 54.6% 1.83 -3.7%

Home O1.5 32.6% 38.5% 2.60 -15.2%

Away O1.5 36.5% 35.7% 2.80 +2.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 25.0%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.6%

H 41% / xG 1.2-1.1 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–0 10.6%

#3 1–0 12.4%

#4 0–1 11.4%

#5 2–1 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Zorya Luhansk1.2

Kolos Kovalivka1.1

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.7% · O3.5 PROB 28.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ZORYA LUHANSK · PPG 1.56

KOLOS KOVALIVKA · PPG 1.61

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.10, combined xG 2.24 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Zorya Luhansk (H) 40.9%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +2.3%

Draw 29.2%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -7.4%

Kolos Kovalivka (A) 29.9%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -10.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Zorya Luhansk face Kolos Kovalivka in Ukraine - Premier League on Friday, July 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Zorya Luhansk a 41% chance, the draw 29% and Kolos Kovalivka 30%, so Zorya Luhansk are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Zorya Luhansk and 1.1 for Kolos Kovalivka (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Zorya Luhansk are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 1.61 for Kolos Kovalivka. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +18.4%.

Zorya Luhansk vs Kolos Kovalivka Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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