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Houston Dash W vs NJ/NY Gotham FC W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Group Stage ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 00:00

Houston Dash W

PPG 1.75 · HOME

UPCOMING

NJ/NY Gotham FC W

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.4%0-113.4%0-28.6%0-33.7%0-4+1.6%1 1-010.2%1-113.1%1-28.4%1-33.6%1-4+1.5%2 2-05.0%2-16.4%2-24.1%2-31.8%2-4+0.8%3 3-01.6%3-12.1%3-21.3%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.6%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.7% 18.2% 5.50 +74.4%

Draw 27.0% 25.3% 3.95 +4.0%

Away win 41.3% 66.7% 1.50 -38.0%

Over 2.5 50.4% 58.8% 1.70 -14.3%

Over 3.5 28.9% 36.4% 2.75 -12.3%

BTTS 52.6% 57.8% 1.73 -9.0%

Home O1.5 32.6% 27.8% 3.60 +17.4%

Away O1.5 37.0% 64.5% 1.55 -42.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -11.3%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 21%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob52.6%

A 41% / xG 1.0-1.3 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 10.4%

#3 0–1 13.4%

#4 0–2 8.6%

#5 1–2 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Houston Dash W1.0

NJ/NY Gotham FC W1.3

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

HOUSTON DASH W · PPG 1.75

NJ/NY GOTHAM FC W · PPG 2.00

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.31, combined xG 2.26 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Houston Dash W (H) 31.7%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +74.4%

Draw 27.0%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV +4.0%

NJ/NY Gotham FC W (A) 41.3%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -38.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Houston Dash W face NJ/NY Gotham FC W in USA - NWSL on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Houston Dash W a 32% chance, the draw 27% and NJ/NY Gotham FC W 41%, so NJ/NY Gotham FC W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Houston Dash W and 1.3 for NJ/NY Gotham FC W (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Houston Dash W are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 2.00 for NJ/NY Gotham FC W. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +32.3%.

Houston Dash W vs NJ/NY Gotham FC W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Match Preview & Prediction

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