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Denver Summit W vs North Carolina Courage W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Group Stage ·Thursday, August 6, 2026, 02:00

Denver Summit W

PPG 1.29 · HOME

UPCOMING

North Carolina Courage W

PPG 1.57 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-18.0%0-24.9%0-32.0%0-4+0.8%1 1-09.8%1-112.0%1-27.4%1-33.0%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.3%2-19.0%2-25.6%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-03.7%3-14.5%3-22.8%3-31.1%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.4%4+-21.5%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.2% 42.0% 2.38 +10.0%

Draw 24.8% 28.2% 3.55 -7.2%

Away win 29.0% 39.2% 2.55 -15.6%

Over 2.5 53.5% 58.8% 1.70 -9.0%

Over 3.5 32.3% 36.4% 2.75 -11.2%

BTTS 54.6% 63.7% 1.57 -14.3%

Home O1.5 45.4% 47.6% 2.10 -4.7%

Away O1.5 35.7% 46.5% 2.15 -23.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -19.4%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.6%

H 46% / xG 1.5-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 0–0 6.5%

#4 1–0 9.8%

#5 1–2 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Denver Summit W1.5

North Carolina Courage W1.2

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.3%

Form & verdict PPG

DENVER SUMMIT W · PPG 1.29

NORTH CAROLINA COURAGE W · PPG 1.57

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.27 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Denver Summit W (H) 46.2%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV +10.0%

Draw 24.8%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -7.2%

North Carolina Courage W (A) 29.0%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -15.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Denver Summit W face North Carolina Courage W in USA - NWSL on Thursday, August 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Denver Summit W a 46% chance, the draw 25% and North Carolina Courage W 29%, so Denver Summit W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Denver Summit W and 1.2 for North Carolina Courage W (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Denver Summit W are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 1.57 for North Carolina Courage W. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +5.9%.

Denver Summit W vs North Carolina Courage W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Match Preview & Prediction

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