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Washington Spirit W vs North Carolina Courage W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Group Stage ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 22:30

Washington Spirit W

PPG 2.00 · HOME

3 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

North Carolina Courage W

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.3 puts the goal expectation near the line. Model probability 50.3% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.6%0-17.9%0-23.3%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-014.5%1-112.0%1-25.0%1-31.4%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.1%2-19.1%2-23.8%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.6%3-14.6%3-21.9%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-12.5%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.7% 57.8% 1.73 -14.0%

Draw 27.2% 27.0% 3.70 +0.4%

Away win 23.1% 25.0% 4.00 -4.6%

Over 2.5 50.3% 58.8% 1.70 -14.5%

Over 3.5 28.8% 36.4% 2.75 -12.5%

BTTS 49.6% 60.6% 1.65 -18.2%

Home O1.5 45.4% 58.8% 1.70 -22.8%

Away O1.5 20.4% 33.9% 2.95 -23.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 69 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -19.4%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-4

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.6%

H 50% / xG 1.5-0.8 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 1–0 14.5%

#3 0–0 9.6%

#4 2–0 11.1%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Washington Spirit W1.5

North Carolina Courage W0.8

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.3% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

WASHINGTON SPIRIT W · PPG 2.00

NORTH CAROLINA COURAGE W · PPG 1.75

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.70 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Washington Spirit W (H) 49.7%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -14.0%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV +0.4%

North Carolina Courage W (A) 23.1%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -4.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Washington Spirit W face North Carolina Courage W in USA - NWSL on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Washington Spirit W a 50% chance, the draw 27% and North Carolina Courage W 23%, so Washington Spirit W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Washington Spirit W and 0.8 for North Carolina Courage W (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Washington Spirit W are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.75 for North Carolina Courage W. This match finished 3-4.

Washington Spirit W vs North Carolina Courage W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Match Preview & Prediction

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