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Orlando Pride W vs Racing Louisville W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Group Stage ·Friday, August 7, 2026, 23:00

Orlando Pride W

PPG 1.78 · HOME

UPCOMING

Racing Louisville W

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 62.9% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-14.3%0-22.2%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-09.1%1-19.2%1-24.7%1-31.6%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.7%2-19.9%2-25.1%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-06.9%3-17.1%3-23.6%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-06.1%4+-16.3%4+-23.2%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.1% 59.5% 1.68 -4.1%

Draw 22.0% 25.3% 3.95 -7.9%

Away win 20.8% 25.3% 3.95 -10.7%

Over 2.5 62.9% 65.4% 1.53 -3.8%

Over 3.5 38.9% 42.6% 2.35 -8.6%

BTTS 54.6% 66.7% 1.50 -18.1%

Home O1.5 61.5% 64.5% 1.55 -4.7%

Away O1.5 32.1% 38.5% 2.60 -16.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 61 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -19.4%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.6%

H 57% / xG 2.1-1.0 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.2%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.7%

#4 1–0 9.1%

#5 3–1 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Orlando Pride W2.1

Racing Louisville W1.0

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.9% · O3.5 PROB 38.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ORLANDO PRIDE W · PPG 1.78

RACING LOUISVILLE W · PPG 0.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.12 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Orlando Pride W (H) 57.1%

ODDS 1.68 · IMPLIED 59.5% EV -4.1%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -7.9%

Racing Louisville W (A) 20.8%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -10.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Orlando Pride W face Racing Louisville W in USA - NWSL on Friday, August 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Orlando Pride W a 57% chance, the draw 22% and Racing Louisville W 21%, so Orlando Pride W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Orlando Pride W and 1.0 for Racing Louisville W (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Orlando Pride W are averaging 1.78 points per game versus 0.33 for Racing Louisville W.

Orlando Pride W vs Racing Louisville W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Match Preview & Prediction

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