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Coritiba vs Chapecoense-sc Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Matchday 22 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 23:30

Coritiba

PPG 1.20 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Chapecoense-sc

PPG 0.30 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-14.8%0-21.9%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-012.3%1-19.7%1-23.8%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.3%2-19.7%2-23.8%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-08.2%3-16.5%3-22.5%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-06.5%4+-15.1%4+-22.0%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.5% 61.0% 1.64 -7.3%

Draw 22.3% 27.0% 3.70 -10.5%

Away win 21.1% 19.0% 5.25 +6.5%

Over 2.5 53.5% 51.8% 1.93 +3.3%

Over 3.5 32.3% 30.3% 3.30 +6.6%

BTTS 53.1% 54.1% 1.85 -1.8%

Home O1.5 55.4% 56.5% 1.77 -1.9%

Away O1.5 19.3% 25.6% 3.90 -14.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 101 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -1.9%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob53.1%

H 56% / xG 2.0-0.8 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.3%

#2 1–1 9.7%

#3 1–0 12.3%

#4 2–1✓ 9.7%

#5 3–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Coritiba2.0

Chapecoense-sc0.8

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.3%

Form & verdict PPG

CORITIBA · PPG 1.20

CHAPECOENSE-SC · PPG 0.30

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.21 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Coritiba (H) 56.5%

ODDS 1.64 · IMPLIED 61.0% EV -7.3%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -10.5%

Chapecoense-sc (A) 21.1%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV +6.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Coritiba face Chapecoense-sc in Brazil - Serie A on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Coritiba a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Chapecoense-sc 21%, so Coritiba are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Coritiba and 0.8 for Chapecoense-sc (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Coritiba are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 0.30 for Chapecoense-sc. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +6.6%. This match finished 2-1.

Coritiba vs Chapecoense-sc Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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