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Coritiba vs Cruzeiro Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Regular Season - 21 ·Friday, July 31, 2026, 00:30

Coritiba

PPG 1.33 · HOME

UPCOMING

Cruzeiro

PPG 1.22 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.2% vs bookmaker-implied 47.6% — a clear edge.

+28.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-16.0%0-23.2%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-010.2%1-110.9%1-25.8%1-32.1%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.2%2-19.8%2-25.2%2-31.9%2-4+0.6%3 3-05.6%3-15.9%3-23.2%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-14.0%4+-22.2%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.3% 32.3% 3.10 +55.9%

Draw 23.5% 30.8% 3.25 -14.2%

Away win 26.2% 44.2% 2.26 -24.5%

Over 2.5 61.2% 47.6% 2.10 +28.5%

Over 3.5 37.3% 26.3% 3.80 +41.7%

BTTS 56.7% 55.6% 1.80 +2.1%

Home O1.5 49.4% 33.9% 2.95 +45.7%

Away O1.5 36.4% 42.6% 2.35 -14.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 87 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 3.2%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob56.7%

H 50% / xG 1.8-1.1 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 9.2%

#4 1–0 10.2%

#5 0–0 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Coritiba1.8

Cruzeiro1.1

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.2% · O3.5 PROB 37.3%

Form & verdict PPG

CORITIBA · PPG 1.33

CRUZEIRO · PPG 1.22

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.74 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Coritiba (H) 50.3%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +55.9%

Draw 23.5%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -14.2%

Cruzeiro (A) 26.2%

ODDS 2.26 · IMPLIED 44.2% EV -24.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Coritiba face Cruzeiro in Brazil - Serie A on Friday, July 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Coritiba a 50% chance, the draw 24% and Cruzeiro 26%, so Coritiba are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Coritiba and 1.1 for Cruzeiro (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Coritiba are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.22 for Cruzeiro. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +90.0%.

Coritiba vs Cruzeiro Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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