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San Martin Tucuman vs San Martin S.J. Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Matchday 24 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 21:00

San Martin Tucuman

PPG 1.55 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

San Martin S.J.

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 50.7% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.1%0-18.9%0-23.0%0-30.7%0-4+0.1%1 1-017.8%1-112.0%1-24.1%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.1%2-18.1%2-22.8%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-05.4%3-13.7%3-21.2%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-11.7%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.7% 51.3% 1.95 -1.1%

Draw 27.6% 35.7% 2.80 -13.6%

Away win 21.7% 23.8% 4.20 -5.3%

Over 2.5 44.0% 33.3% 3.00 +32.0%

Over 3.5 22.0% 15.4% 6.50 +25.8%

BTTS 48.4% 40.8% 2.45 +18.6%

Home O1.5 37.4% 38.2% 2.62 -2.0%

Away O1.5 17.4% 20.0% 5.00 -7.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 233 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 64%

ROI -1.1%

Bet Hit 49%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.4%

H 51% / xG 1.4-0.7 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.8%

#2 0–0 13.1%

#3 1–1✓ 12.0%

#4 2–0 12.1%

#5 2–1 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

San Martin Tucuman1.4

San Martin S.J.0.7

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.0% · O3.5 PROB 22.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SAN MARTIN TUCUMAN · PPG 1.55

SAN MARTIN S.J. · PPG 1.00

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.68 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

San Martin Tucuman (H) 50.7%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -1.1%

Draw 27.6%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -13.6%

San Martin S.J. (A) 21.7%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -5.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

San Martin Tucuman face San Martin S.J. in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives San Martin Tucuman a 51% chance, the draw 28% and San Martin S.J. 22%, so San Martin Tucuman are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for San Martin Tucuman and 0.7 for San Martin S.J. (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, San Martin Tucuman are averaging 1.55 points per game versus 1.00 for San Martin S.J.. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +33.9%. This match finished 1-1.

San Martin Tucuman vs San Martin S.J. Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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