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Pittsburgh Riverhounds vs Sacramento Republic Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 23:00

Pittsburgh Riverhounds

PPG 1.67 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

Sacramento Republic

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.7%0-112.6%0-25.8%0-31.8%0-4+0.5%1 1-014.7%1-113.5%1-26.2%1-31.9%1-4+0.5%2 2-07.8%2-17.2%2-23.3%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-02.8%3-12.6%3-21.2%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-10.9%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.7% 46.5% 2.15 -14.6%

Draw 31.2% 32.3% 3.10 -3.3%

Away win 29.0% 31.3% 3.20 -4.3%

Over 2.5 44.0% 45.5% 2.20 -3.2%

Over 3.5 22.0% 23.8% 4.20 -4.6%

BTTS 48.4% 54.1% 1.85 -10.5%

Home O1.5 32.1% 42.6% 2.35 -24.6%

Away O1.5 25.4% 32.3% 3.10 -12.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 113 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -14.2%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.4%

H 40% / xG 1.1-0.9 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0✓ 13.7%

#2 1–1 13.5%

#3 1–0 14.7%

#4 0–1 12.6%

#5 2–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Pittsburgh Riverhounds1.1

Sacramento Republic0.9

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.0% · O3.5 PROB 22.0%

Form & verdict PPG

PITTSBURGH RIVERHOUNDS · PPG 1.67

SACRAMENTO REPUBLIC · PPG 1.11

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.15, combined xG 1.99 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Pittsburgh Riverhounds (H) 39.7%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -14.6%

Draw 31.2%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -3.3%

Sacramento Republic (A) 29.0%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -4.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Pittsburgh Riverhounds face Sacramento Republic in USA - USL Championship on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pittsburgh Riverhounds a 40% chance, the draw 31% and Sacramento Republic 29%, so Pittsburgh Riverhounds are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Pittsburgh Riverhounds and 0.9 for Sacramento Republic (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pittsburgh Riverhounds are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.11 for Sacramento Republic. This match finished 0-0.

Pittsburgh Riverhounds vs Sacramento Republic Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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