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Sporting Cristal vs Juan Pablo II College Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Clausura - 3 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 16:00

Sporting Cristal

PPG 1.89 · HOME

UPCOMING

Juan Pablo II College

PPG 0.89 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 77.1% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.3%0-11.4%0-20.8%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-04.1%1-14.7%1-22.6%1-31.0%1-4+0.4%2 2-06.6%2-17.5%2-24.3%2-31.6%2-4+0.6%3 3-07.1%3-18.1%3-24.6%3-31.7%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-013.0%4+-114.7%4+-28.3%4+-33.2%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.7% 80.6% 1.24 -19.8%

Draw 16.8% 17.9% 5.60 -3.5%

Away win 18.5% 8.7% 11.50 +67.7%

Over 2.5 70.5% 69.0% 1.45 +2.2%

Over 3.5 48.3% 47.6% 2.10 +1.4%

BTTS 62.1% 54.6% 1.83 +13.6%

Home O1.5 77.1% 78.1% 1.28 -1.3%

Away O1.5 36.5% 21.1% 4.75 +73.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 53%

ROI 10.0%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 67%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob62.1%

H 65% / xG 3.2-1.1 / O2.5 70% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 8.1%

#2 2–1 7.5%

#3 3–0 7.1%

#4 2–0 6.6%

#5 4–1 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sporting Cristal3.2

Juan Pablo II College1.1

COMBINED 4.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 70.5% · O3.5 PROB 48.3%

Form & verdict PPG

SPORTING CRISTAL · PPG 1.89

JUAN PABLO II COLLEGE · PPG 0.89

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.09 for Home, form 1.89 vs 0.89 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Sporting Cristal (H) 64.7%

ODDS 1.24 · IMPLIED 80.6% EV -19.8%

Draw 16.8%

ODDS 5.60 · IMPLIED 17.9% EV -3.5%

Juan Pablo II College (A) 18.5%

ODDS 11.50 · IMPLIED 8.7% EV +67.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sporting Cristal face Juan Pablo II College in Peru - Primera División on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sporting Cristal a 65% chance, the draw 17% and Juan Pablo II College 19%, so Sporting Cristal are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.2 for Sporting Cristal and 1.1 for Juan Pablo II College (4.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 71% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sporting Cristal are averaging 1.89 points per game versus 0.89 for Juan Pablo II College. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +73.4%.

Sporting Cristal vs Juan Pablo II College Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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