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Alianza Lima vs Alianza Atletico Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Clausura - 3 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 01:30

Alianza Lima

PPG 2.78 · HOME

UPCOMING

Alianza Atletico

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 71.8% vs bookmaker-implied 73.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-12.8%0-20.7%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-013.5%1-16.7%1-21.7%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-016.0%2-17.9%2-22.0%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-012.6%3-16.2%3-21.5%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-013.0%4+-16.5%4+-21.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 71.8% 73.0% 1.37 -1.6%

Draw 18.6% 23.0% 4.35 -11.5%

Away win 9.6% 10.9% 9.20 -7.0%

Over 2.5 61.2% 52.6% 1.90 +16.3%

Over 3.5 37.3% 30.8% 3.25 +21.2%

BTTS 48.7% 47.6% 2.10 +2.3%

Home O1.5 60.1% 64.5% 1.55 -6.9%

Away O1.5 17.4% 17.4% 5.75 +0.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 53%

ROI 10.0%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 59%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob48.7%

H 72% / xG 2.4-0.5 / O2.5 61% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 16.0%

#2 3–0 12.6%

#3 1–0 13.5%

#4 2–1 7.9%

#5 1–1 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Alianza Lima2.4

Alianza Atletico0.5

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.2% · O3.5 PROB 37.3%

Form & verdict PPG

ALIANZA LIMA · PPG 2.78

ALIANZA ATLETICO · PPG 0.80

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.87 for Home, form 2.78 vs 0.80 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Alianza Lima (H) 71.8%

ODDS 1.37 · IMPLIED 73.0% EV -1.6%

Draw 18.6%

ODDS 4.35 · IMPLIED 23.0% EV -11.5%

Alianza Atletico (A) 9.6%

ODDS 9.20 · IMPLIED 10.9% EV -7.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Alianza Lima face Alianza Atletico in Peru - Primera División on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Alianza Lima a 72% chance, the draw 19% and Alianza Atletico 10%, so Alianza Lima are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Alianza Lima and 0.5 for Alianza Atletico (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Alianza Lima are averaging 2.78 points per game versus 0.80 for Alianza Atletico. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +21.2%.

Alianza Lima vs Alianza Atletico Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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