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Gimnasia Y Tiro vs Nueva Chicago Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Matchday 24 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 20:30

Gimnasia Y Tiro

PPG 1.67 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Nueva Chicago

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 52.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.4%0-19.1%0-22.9%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-018.8%1-111.9%1-23.8%1-30.8%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.3%2-17.8%2-22.5%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-05.3%3-13.4%3-21.1%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-11.5%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.6% 52.4% 1.91 +0.5%

Draw 26.8% 35.7% 2.80 -15.0%

Away win 20.7% 22.2% 4.50 -4.1%

Over 2.5 37.3% 35.1% 2.85 +6.3%

Over 3.5 21.4% 15.4% 6.50 +23.5%

BTTS 45.5% 43.5% 2.30 +4.7%

Home O1.5 37.4% 40.8% 2.45 -8.4%

Away O1.5 17.4% 20.0% 5.00 -7.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 233 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 64%

ROI -1.1%

Bet Hit 49%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 46%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob45.5%

H 53% / xG 1.3-0.6 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 18.8%

#2 0–0 14.4%

#3 1–1 11.9%

#4 2–0✓ 12.3%

#5 2–1 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gimnasia Y Tiro1.3

Nueva Chicago0.6

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.3% · O3.5 PROB 21.4%

Form & verdict PPG

GIMNASIA Y TIRO · PPG 1.67

NUEVA CHICAGO · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.67 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Gimnasia Y Tiro (H) 52.6%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV +0.5%

Draw 26.8%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -15.0%

Nueva Chicago (A) 20.7%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -4.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gimnasia Y Tiro face Nueva Chicago in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gimnasia Y Tiro a 53% chance, the draw 27% and Nueva Chicago 21%, so Gimnasia Y Tiro are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Gimnasia Y Tiro and 0.6 for Nueva Chicago (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gimnasia Y Tiro are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.00 for Nueva Chicago. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +23.5%. This match finished 2-0.

Gimnasia Y Tiro vs Nueva Chicago Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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