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Atletico Mitre vs Ferro Carril Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 10 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 18:00

Atletico Mitre

PPG 1.33 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

Ferro Carril

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.1%0-110.2%0-23.1%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.9%1-112.0%1-23.6%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-011.6%2-17.0%2-22.1%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.5%3-12.7%3-20.8%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-11.0%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.7% 41.7% 2.40 +19.3%

Draw 31.3% 39.2% 2.55 -20.2%

Away win 19.0% 29.4% 3.40 -35.4%

Over 2.5 26.1% 29.9% 3.35 -12.6%

Over 3.5 10.4% — — —

BTTS 31.1% 40.8% 2.45 -23.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 177 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob31.1%

H 50% / xG 1.2-0.6 / U2.5 26% / NoBTTS 31%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 19.9%

#2 0–0 17.1%

#3 1–1 12.0%

#4 2–0 11.6%

#5 0–1✓ 10.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atletico Mitre1.2

Ferro Carril0.6

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 26.1% · O3.5 PROB 10.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLETICO MITRE · PPG 1.33

FERRO CARRIL · PPG 1.60

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.33), Away GOOD (1.60)

Win probability 1X2

Atletico Mitre (H) 49.7%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +19.3%

Draw 31.3%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -20.2%

Ferro Carril (A) 19.0%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -35.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atletico Mitre face Ferro Carril in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atletico Mitre a 50% chance, the draw 31% and Ferro Carril 19%, so Atletico Mitre are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Atletico Mitre and 0.6 for Ferro Carril (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 26% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 31% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atletico Mitre are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.60 for Ferro Carril. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +19.3%. This match finished 0-1.

Atletico Mitre vs Ferro Carril Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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