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Almirante Brown vs Central Norte Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 10 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 18:30

Almirante Brown

PPG 1.00 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Central Norte

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-040.8%0-19.8%0-21.2%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-026.8%1-16.4%1-20.8%1-30.1%1-4+0.0%2 2-08.8%2-12.1%2-20.3%2-30.0%2-4+0.0%3 3-01.9%3-10.5%3-20.1%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.1%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.6% 46.5% 2.15 -12.7%

Draw 47.5% 38.2% 2.62 +24.4%

Away win 11.9% 25.0% 4.00 -52.4%

Over 2.5 6.2% 28.6% 3.50 -78.3%

Over 3.5 1.3% — — —

BTTS 10.2% 38.5% 2.60 -73.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 177 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)0.2 BTTS prob10.2%

H 41% / xG 0.7-0.2 / U2.5 6% / NoBTTS 10%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 40.8%

#2 1–0✓ 26.8%

#3 0–1 9.8%

#4 2–0 8.8%

#5 1–1 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Almirante Brown0.7

Central Norte0.2

COMBINED 0.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 6.2% · O3.5 PROB 1.3%

Form & verdict PPG

ALMIRANTE BROWN · PPG 1.00

CENTRAL NORTE · PPG 0.80

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away POOR (0.80)

Win probability 1X2

Almirante Brown (H) 40.6%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -12.7%

Draw 47.5%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV +24.4%

Central Norte (A) 11.9%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -52.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Almirante Brown face Central Norte in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Almirante Brown a 41% chance, the draw 48% and Central Norte 12%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.7 for Almirante Brown and 0.2 for Central Norte (0.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 6% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 10% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Almirante Brown are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.80 for Central Norte. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +24.4%. This match finished 1-0.

Almirante Brown vs Central Norte Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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