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Empoli vs Entella Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Regular Season - 35 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 17:30

Empoli

PPG 1.29 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Entella

PPG 0.41 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 63.8% vs bookmaker-implied 47.6% — a clear edge.

+34.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.3%0-15.2%0-22.1%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-012.3%1-110.0%1-24.1%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.9%2-19.8%2-24.0%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-07.7%3-16.3%3-22.6%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-05.9%4+-14.8%4+-22.0%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.8% 47.6% 2.10 +34.0%

Draw 21.1% 32.3% 3.10 -34.6%

Away win 15.0% 27.4% 3.65 -45.3%

Over 2.5 52.1% 47.6% 2.10 +9.4%

Over 3.5 29.9% 26.7% 3.75 +12.1%

BTTS 47.9% 55.6% 1.80 -13.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 40 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 60%

ROI 4.0%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob47.9%

H 64% / xG 1.9-0.8 / O2.5 52% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 12.3%

#2 2–0 11.9%

#3 1–1✓ 10.0%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 3–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Empoli1.9

Entella0.8

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.1% · O3.5 PROB 29.9%

Form & verdict PPG

EMPOLI · PPG 1.29

ENTELLA · PPG 0.41

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.29) vs P(Home)=63.8%

Win probability 1X2

Empoli (H) 63.8%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +34.0%

Draw 21.1%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -34.6%

Entella (A) 15.0%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -45.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Empoli face Entella in Italy - Serie B on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Empoli a 64% chance, the draw 21% and Entella 15%, so Empoli are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Empoli and 0.8 for Entella (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Empoli are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 0.41 for Entella. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +34.0%. This match finished 1-1.

Empoli vs Entella Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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