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Deportivo Armenio vs Villa Dalmine Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Matchday 29 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 18:30

Deportivo Armenio

PPG 1.79 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Villa Dalmine

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.4%0-117.1%0-210.1%0-34.0%0-4+1.5%1 1-010.9%1-112.9%1-27.6%1-33.0%1-4+1.1%2 2-04.1%2-14.8%2-22.9%2-31.1%2-4+0.4%3 3-01.0%3-11.2%3-20.7%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.3%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 25.3% 38.5% 2.60 -20.5%

Draw 33.0% 37.0% 2.70 -10.9%

Away win 41.8% 34.5% 2.90 +21.2%

Over 2.5 36.3% 32.3% 3.10 +12.5%

Over 3.5 18.1% 16.7% 6.00 +5.2%

BTTS 45.5% 42.6% 2.35 +6.9%

Home O1.5 32.1% 29.4% 3.40 +9.1%

Away O1.5 35.4% 27.0% 3.70 +31.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 129 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 65%

ROI 26.0%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob45.5%

A 42% / xG 0.8-1.2 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.4%

#2 0–1 17.1%

#3 1–1 12.9%

#4 0–2 10.1%

#5 1–0✓ 10.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportivo Armenio0.8

Villa Dalmine1.2

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 36.3% · O3.5 PROB 18.1%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTIVO ARMENIO · PPG 1.79

VILLA DALMINE · PPG 2.00

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.43, combined xG 1.94 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Deportivo Armenio (H) 25.3%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -20.5%

Draw 33.0%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -10.9%

Villa Dalmine (A) 41.8%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +21.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportivo Armenio face Villa Dalmine in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportivo Armenio a 25% chance, the draw 33% and Villa Dalmine 42%, so Villa Dalmine are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Deportivo Armenio and 1.2 for Villa Dalmine (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportivo Armenio are averaging 1.79 points per game versus 2.00 for Villa Dalmine. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +31.3%. This match finished 1-0.

Deportivo Armenio vs Villa Dalmine Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

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