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Comunicaciones vs Villa San Carlos Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Matchday 29 ·Friday, August 7, 2026, 22:00

Comunicaciones

PPG 1.36 · HOME

UPCOMING

Villa San Carlos

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 51.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.4%0-18.0%0-23.8%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.8%1-112.2%1-25.8%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.7%2-19.3%2-24.4%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.9%3-14.7%3-22.2%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-12.5%4+-21.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.8% 51.3% 1.95 -6.8%

Draw 25.8% 31.3% 3.20 -10.5%

Away win 26.5% 27.8% 3.60 -2.8%

Over 2.5 50.3% 45.5% 2.20 +10.7%

Over 3.5 28.8% 23.8% 4.20 +12.6%

BTTS 53.1% 51.8% 1.93 +2.5%

Home O1.5 45.4% 45.5% 2.20 -0.1%

Away O1.5 27.7% 29.0% 3.45 -2.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 118 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 67%

ROI 40.0%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob53.1%

H 48% / xG 1.5-1.0 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 1–0 12.8%

#3 0–0 8.4%

#4 2–0 9.7%

#5 2–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Comunicaciones1.5

Villa San Carlos1.0

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.3% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

COMUNICACIONES · PPG 1.36

VILLA SAN CARLOS · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.57 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Comunicaciones (H) 47.8%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -6.8%

Draw 25.8%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -10.5%

Villa San Carlos (A) 26.5%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -2.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Comunicaciones face Villa San Carlos in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Friday, August 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Comunicaciones a 48% chance, the draw 26% and Villa San Carlos 27%, so Comunicaciones are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Comunicaciones and 1.0 for Villa San Carlos (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Comunicaciones are averaging 1.36 points per game versus 1.00 for Villa San Carlos. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +12.6%.

Comunicaciones vs Villa San Carlos Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

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