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Ituzaingó vs Deportivo Camioneros Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Matchday 29 ·Friday, August 7, 2026, 22:00

Ituzaingó

PPG 0.64 · HOME

UPCOMING

Deportivo Camioneros

PPG 1.79 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 58.0% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.9%0-121.0%0-214.7%0-36.9%0-4+3.3%1 1-07.4%1-110.4%1-27.3%1-33.4%1-4+1.6%2 2-01.8%2-12.6%2-21.8%2-30.9%2-4+0.4%3 3-00.3%3-10.4%3-20.3%3-30.1%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.1%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 14.1% 25.6% 3.90 -27.0%

Draw 27.9% 30.8% 3.25 -5.6%

Away win 58.0% 54.1% 1.85 +7.3%

Over 2.5 41.7% 46.5% 2.15 -10.3%

Over 3.5 21.9% 25.3% 3.95 -8.1%

BTTS 45.5% 51.8% 1.93 -12.2%

Home O1.5 32.1% 28.2% 3.55 +14.0%

Away O1.5 43.7% 47.6% 2.10 -8.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 118 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 67%

ROI 40.0%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 45%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.5 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob45.5%

A 58% / xG 0.5-1.4 / U2.5 42% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 21.0%

#2 0–0 14.9%

#3 0–2 14.7%

#4 1–1 10.4%

#5 1–2 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ituzaingó0.5

Deportivo Camioneros1.4

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 41.7% · O3.5 PROB 21.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ITUZAINGÓ · PPG 0.64

DEPORTIVO CAMIONEROS · PPG 1.79

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.91 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Ituzaingó (H) 14.1%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -27.0%

Draw 27.9%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -5.6%

Deportivo Camioneros (A) 58.0%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV +7.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ituzaingó face Deportivo Camioneros in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Friday, August 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ituzaingó a 14% chance, the draw 28% and Deportivo Camioneros 58%, so Deportivo Camioneros are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.5 for Ituzaingó and 1.4 for Deportivo Camioneros (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 42% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ituzaingó are averaging 0.64 points per game versus 1.79 for Deportivo Camioneros. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +14.0%.

Ituzaingó vs Deportivo Camioneros Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

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