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Brown DE Adrogue vs Excursionistas Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Matchday 29 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 18:00

Brown DE Adrogue

PPG 0.93 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Excursionistas

PPG 1.79 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.6%0-118.1%0-213.0%0-36.2%0-4+3.1%1 1-08.0%1-111.5%1-28.3%1-34.0%1-4+2.0%2 2-02.5%2-13.6%2-22.6%2-31.3%2-4+0.6%3 3-00.5%3-10.8%3-20.6%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.9% 32.3% 3.10 -15.6%

Draw 26.9% 34.5% 2.90 -13.2%

Away win 49.2% 43.5% 2.30 +13.2%

Over 2.5 44.0% 37.0% 2.70 +18.8%

Over 3.5 22.0% 22.2% 4.50 -0.6%

BTTS 46.6% 46.5% 2.15 +0.2%

Home O1.5 32.1% 28.2% 3.55 +14.0%

Away O1.5 43.7% 35.7% 2.80 +22.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 129 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 65%

ROI 26.0%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob46.6%

A 49% / xG 0.6-1.4 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 18.1%

#2 0–0 12.6%

#3 1–1 11.5%

#4 0–2 13.0%

#5 1–2 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Brown DE Adrogue0.6

Excursionistas1.4

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.0% · O3.5 PROB 22.0%

Form & verdict PPG

BROWN DE ADROGUE · PPG 0.93

EXCURSIONISTAS · PPG 1.79

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.80 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Brown DE Adrogue (H) 23.9%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -15.6%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -13.2%

Excursionistas (A) 49.2%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +13.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Brown DE Adrogue face Excursionistas in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Brown DE Adrogue a 24% chance, the draw 27% and Excursionistas 49%, so Excursionistas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for Brown DE Adrogue and 1.4 for Excursionistas (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Brown DE Adrogue are averaging 0.93 points per game versus 1.79 for Excursionistas. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +22.4%. This match finished 1-0.

Brown DE Adrogue vs Excursionistas Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

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