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Defensores Unidos vs Liniers Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Matchday 29 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 18:00

Defensores Unidos

PPG 1.57 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

Liniers

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.9%0-113.0%0-24.7%0-31.1%0-4+0.2%1 1-017.8%1-112.9%1-24.7%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-08.9%2-16.4%2-22.3%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-02.9%3-12.1%3-20.8%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-10.7%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.1% 40.8% 2.45 -1.8%

Draw 33.2% 35.7% 2.80 -7.0%

Away win 26.7% 33.3% 3.00 -11.9%

Over 2.5 35.2% 35.1% 2.85 +0.3%

Over 3.5 18.1% 18.2% 5.50 -0.3%

BTTS 45.5% 45.5% 2.20 +0.1%

Home O1.5 32.1% 33.3% 3.00 -3.7%

Away O1.5 17.4% 28.2% 3.55 -22.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 129 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 65%

ROI 26.0%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob45.5%

H 40% / xG 1.0-0.7 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 17.9%

#2 1–0 17.8%

#3 1–1 12.9%

#4 0–1 13.0%

#5 2–0 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Defensores Unidos1.0

Liniers0.7

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.2% · O3.5 PROB 18.1%

Form & verdict PPG

DEFENSORES UNIDOS · PPG 1.57

LINIERS · PPG 1.00

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.27, combined xG 1.72 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Defensores Unidos (H) 40.1%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -1.8%

Draw 33.2%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -7.0%

Liniers (A) 26.7%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -11.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Defensores Unidos face Liniers in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Defensores Unidos a 40% chance, the draw 33% and Liniers 27%, so Defensores Unidos are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Defensores Unidos and 0.7 for Liniers (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Defensores Unidos are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 1.00 for Liniers. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +0.3%. This match finished 2-3.

Defensores Unidos vs Liniers Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

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