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Deportivo Merlo vs Sportivo Italiano Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Matchday 29 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 22:00

Deportivo Merlo

PPG 1.57 · HOME

0 – 4

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Sportivo Italiano

PPG 1.79 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 45.5% — a clear edge.

+16.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.2%0-112.1%0-28.0%0-33.5%0-4+1.6%1 1-09.8%1-112.9%1-28.6%1-33.8%1-4+1.7%2 2-05.2%2-16.9%2-24.6%2-32.0%2-4+0.9%3 3-01.9%3-12.4%3-21.6%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.8%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.9% 37.0% 2.70 -16.6%

Draw 27.2% 35.1% 2.85 -13.5%

Away win 41.9% 37.0% 2.70 +13.1%

Over 2.5 50.3% 35.1% 2.85 +43.4%

Over 3.5 28.8% 16.7% 6.00 +43.7%

BTTS 53.1% 45.5% 2.20 +16.8%

Home O1.5 32.1% 30.3% 3.30 +5.9%

Away O1.5 43.7% 30.3% 3.30 +44.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 129 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 65%

ROI 26.0%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 21%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-4

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob53.1%

A 42% / xG 1.1-1.3 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 9.2%

#3 0–1 12.1%

#4 1–2 8.6%

#5 0–2 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportivo Merlo1.1

Sportivo Italiano1.3

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.3% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTIVO MERLO · PPG 1.57

SPORTIVO ITALIANO · PPG 1.79

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.26, combined xG 2.39 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Deportivo Merlo (H) 30.9%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -16.6%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV -13.5%

Sportivo Italiano (A) 41.9%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV +13.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportivo Merlo face Sportivo Italiano in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportivo Merlo a 31% chance, the draw 27% and Sportivo Italiano 42%, so Sportivo Italiano are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Deportivo Merlo and 1.3 for Sportivo Italiano (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportivo Merlo are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 1.79 for Sportivo Italiano. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +53.7%. This match finished 0-4.

Deportivo Merlo vs Sportivo Italiano Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

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