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Concepción vs Universidad de Concepcion Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Matchday 18 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 16:30

Concepción

PPG 1.56 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Universidad de Concepcion

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 60.1% vs bookmaker-implied 53.2% — a clear edge.

+13.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-15.1%0-21.9%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-013.4%1-19.9%1-23.7%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.9%2-19.5%2-23.5%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-08.3%3-16.1%3-22.3%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-06.2%4+-14.6%4+-21.7%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 60.1% 53.2% 1.88 +13.0%

Draw 22.6% 29.9% 3.35 -14.6%

Away win 17.3% 26.0% 3.85 -20.0%

Over 2.5 53.5% 50.0% 2.00 +7.0%

Over 3.5 32.3% 29.0% 3.45 +11.4%

BTTS 53.1% 55.6% 1.80 -4.4%

Home O1.5 55.4% 50.0% 2.00 +10.8%

Away O1.5 17.4% 30.3% 3.30 -25.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 21.3%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob53.1%

H 60% / xG 1.9-0.7 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.9%

#2 1–0✓ 13.4%

#3 1–1 9.9%

#4 2–1 9.5%

#5 0–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Concepción1.9

Universidad de Concepcion0.7

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.3%

Form & verdict PPG

CONCEPCIÓN · PPG 1.56

UNIVERSIDAD DE CONCEPCION · PPG 0.75

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.19 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Concepción (H) 60.1%

ODDS 1.88 · IMPLIED 53.2% EV +13.0%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -14.6%

Universidad de Concepcion (A) 17.3%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -20.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Concepción face Universidad de Concepcion in Chile - Primera División on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Concepción a 60% chance, the draw 23% and Universidad de Concepcion 17%, so Concepción are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Concepción and 0.7 for Universidad de Concepcion (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Concepción are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 0.75 for Universidad de Concepcion. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +20.9%. This match finished 1-0.

Concepción vs Universidad de Concepcion Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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