Today / Chile - Primera División / Concepción vs U. Catolica

Concepción vs U. Catolica Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Regular Season - 17 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 16:30

Concepción

PPG 1.38 · HOME

UPCOMING

U. Catolica

PPG 1.62 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 62.1% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-17.4%0-26.5%0-33.8%0-4+2.5%1 1-06.0%1-110.5%1-29.1%1-35.3%1-4+3.5%2 2-04.2%2-17.4%2-26.5%2-33.8%2-4+2.5%3 3-02.0%3-13.5%3-23.0%3-31.8%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.7%4+-21.5%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.8% 29.9% 3.35 +19.9%

Draw 24.1% 29.0% 3.45 -10.1%

Away win 40.1% 50.5% 1.98 -20.6%

Over 2.5 61.2% 55.6% 1.80 +10.2%

Over 3.5 38.9% 33.3% 3.00 +16.7%

BTTS 62.1% 60.6% 1.65 +2.5%

Home O1.5 45.4% 35.7% 2.80 +27.1%

Away O1.5 48.0% 51.3% 1.95 -6.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 27%

ROI 12.0%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 38%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob62.1%

A 40% / xG 1.4-1.8 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 1–2 9.1%

#3 2–1 7.4%

#4 0–2 6.5%

#5 2–2 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Concepción1.4

U. Catolica1.8

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.2% · O3.5 PROB 38.9%

Form & verdict PPG

CONCEPCIÓN · PPG 1.38

U. CATOLICA · PPG 1.62

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.34 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Concepción (H) 35.8%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV +19.9%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -10.1%

U. Catolica (A) 40.1%

ODDS 1.98 · IMPLIED 50.5% EV -20.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Concepción face U. Catolica in Chile - Primera División on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Concepción a 36% chance, the draw 24% and U. Catolica 40%, so U. Catolica are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Concepción and 1.8 for U. Catolica (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Concepción are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 1.62 for U. Catolica. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +27.1%.

Concepción vs U. Catolica Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

More Chile - Primera División Predictions