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Universidad de Chile vs Palestino Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Matchday 18 ·Monday, August 10, 2026, 00:00

Universidad de Chile

PPG 2.25 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Palestino

PPG 1.12 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 61.6% vs bookmaker-implied 61.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.8%0-15.1%0-21.6%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-014.8%1-19.6%1-23.1%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.1%2-19.2%2-23.0%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-08.9%3-15.8%3-21.9%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-06.6%4+-14.3%4+-21.4%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.6% 61.0% 1.64 +1.0%

Draw 22.8% 26.7% 3.75 -8.7%

Away win 15.6% 21.1% 4.75 -15.5%

Over 2.5 51.2% 55.6% 1.80 -7.8%

Over 3.5 30.0% 33.3% 3.00 -10.0%

BTTS 47.7% 56.5% 1.77 -15.6%

Home O1.5 54.6% 57.8% 1.73 -5.5%

Away O1.5 17.2% 28.2% 3.55 -23.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 21.3%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob47.7%

H 62% / xG 1.9-0.7 / O2.5 51% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 14.1%

#2 1–0 14.8%

#3 1–1 9.6%

#4 0–0 7.8%

#5 2–1✓ 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Universidad de Chile1.9

Palestino0.7

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.2% · O3.5 PROB 30.0%

Form & verdict PPG

UNIVERSIDAD DE CHILE · PPG 2.25

PALESTINO · PPG 1.12

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.25 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Universidad de Chile (H) 61.6%

ODDS 1.64 · IMPLIED 61.0% EV +1.0%

Draw 22.8%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -8.7%

Palestino (A) 15.6%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV -15.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Universidad de Chile face Palestino in Chile - Primera División on Monday, August 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Universidad de Chile a 62% chance, the draw 23% and Palestino 16%, so Universidad de Chile are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Universidad de Chile and 0.7 for Palestino (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Universidad de Chile are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 1.12 for Palestino. This match finished 2-1.

Universidad de Chile vs Palestino Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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