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O'Higgins vs Deportes Limache Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Matchday 18 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 19:00

O'Higgins

PPG 1.50 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Deportes Limache

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 62.9% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-15.7%0-24.1%0-31.9%0-4+0.9%1 1-07.2%1-110.2%1-27.3%1-33.5%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.4%2-19.2%2-26.5%2-33.1%2-4+1.5%3 3-03.8%3-15.5%3-23.9%3-31.9%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-13.7%4+-22.6%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.5% 49.5% 2.02 -2.0%

Draw 22.9% 28.2% 3.55 -11.2%

Away win 28.6% 31.7% 3.15 -5.9%

Over 2.5 63.6% 58.8% 1.70 +8.1%

Over 3.5 40.3% 36.4% 2.75 +10.8%

BTTS 62.9% 63.7% 1.57 -1.3%

Home O1.5 49.2% 52.6% 1.90 -6.5%

Away O1.5 43.7% 39.2% 2.55 +11.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 21.3%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob62.9%

H 48% / xG 1.8-1.4 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.2%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 1–2 7.3%

#4 2–2 6.5%

#5 2–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

O'Higgins1.8

Deportes Limache1.4

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.6% · O3.5 PROB 40.3%

Form & verdict PPG

O'HIGGINS · PPG 1.50

DEPORTES LIMACHE · PPG 0.67

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.36 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

O'Higgins (H) 48.5%

ODDS 2.02 · IMPLIED 49.5% EV -2.0%

Draw 22.9%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -11.2%

Deportes Limache (A) 28.6%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -5.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

O'Higgins face Deportes Limache in Chile - Primera División on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives O'Higgins a 49% chance, the draw 23% and Deportes Limache 29%, so O'Higgins are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for O'Higgins and 1.4 for Deportes Limache (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, O'Higgins are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.67 for Deportes Limache. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +11.4%. This match finished 1-3.

O'Higgins vs Deportes Limache Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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