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Coquimbo Unido vs D. La Serena Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Matchday 18 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 21:30

Coquimbo Unido

PPG 1.57 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

D. La Serena

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.4% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-14.6%0-22.2%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-010.0%1-19.5%1-24.6%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.4%2-19.9%2-24.8%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.2%3-16.9%3-23.3%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-06.1%4+-15.8%4+-22.8%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.5% 67.6% 1.48 -16.4%

Draw 22.3% 25.0% 4.00 -6.5%

Away win 21.1% 16.7% 6.00 +16.0%

Over 2.5 60.4% 55.6% 1.80 +8.7%

Over 3.5 37.4% 33.9% 2.95 +10.3%

BTTS 54.6% 54.6% 1.83 -0.1%

Home O1.5 61.4% 62.5% 1.60 -1.8%

Away O1.5 27.7% 23.8% 4.20 +9.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 21.3%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.6%

H 56% / xG 2.1-1.0 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 9.5%

#2 2–0 10.4%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 10.0%

#5 3–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Coquimbo Unido2.1

D. La Serena1.0

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.4% · O3.5 PROB 37.4%

Form & verdict PPG

COQUIMBO UNIDO · PPG 1.57

D. LA SERENA · PPG 0.88

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.13 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Coquimbo Unido (H) 56.5%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV -16.4%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -6.5%

D. La Serena (A) 21.1%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +16.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Coquimbo Unido face D. La Serena in Chile - Primera División on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Coquimbo Unido a 56% chance, the draw 22% and D. La Serena 21%, so Coquimbo Unido are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Coquimbo Unido and 1.0 for D. La Serena (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Coquimbo Unido are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 0.88 for D. La Serena. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +11.8%. This match finished 1-1.

Coquimbo Unido vs D. La Serena Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

More Chile - Primera División Predictions