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D. La Serena vs O'Higgins Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Regular Season - 17 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 19:00

D. La Serena

PPG 1.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

O'Higgins

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 63.6% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a clear edge.

+14.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-14.9%0-22.8%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-08.4%1-19.8%1-25.7%1-32.2%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.5%2-19.8%2-25.7%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-05.7%3-16.6%3-23.8%3-31.5%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-04.5%4+-15.3%4+-23.1%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.6% 40.0% 2.50 +34.0%

Draw 22.4% 29.0% 3.45 -13.6%

Away win 24.1% 40.0% 2.50 -23.8%

Over 2.5 63.6% 55.6% 1.80 +14.5%

Over 3.5 40.1% 33.9% 2.95 +18.3%

BTTS 62.1% 62.5% 1.60 -0.6%

Home O1.5 53.6% 44.4% 2.25 +20.6%

Away O1.5 36.5% 44.4% 2.25 -17.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 27%

ROI 12.0%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob62.1%

H 54% / xG 2.0-1.2 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.8%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.5%

#4 1–0 8.4%

#5 3–1 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

D. La Serena2.0

O'Higgins1.2

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.6% · O3.5 PROB 40.1%

Form & verdict PPG

D. LA SERENA · PPG 1.50

O'HIGGINS · PPG 1.00

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.85 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

D. La Serena (H) 53.6%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +34.0%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -13.6%

O'Higgins (A) 24.1%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -23.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

D. La Serena face O'Higgins in Chile - Primera División on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives D. La Serena a 54% chance, the draw 22% and O'Higgins 24%, so D. La Serena are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for D. La Serena and 1.2 for O'Higgins (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, D. La Serena are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.00 for O'Higgins. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +47.5%.

D. La Serena vs O'Higgins Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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